The European Union announced on Wednesday it has taken a case-by-case approach to deciding how much tariffs could increase on Chinese electric vehicles. In a move that surprised many industry professionals, the preliminary duties set to hit Chinese EV imports will rise from the general 10% basis on all of them to between 27% and 48%, with SAIC and those deemed incompliant with EU standards facing the hardest hit. The tariff hikes are relatively moderate for the likes of BYD and Geely, which have either committed to growing deep roots within the EU or have already done so in the past.
Broadly speaking, the additional duties are still in line with what many analysts had expected, despite the possibility of a massive but temporary plunge in China’s EV exports to Europe. Chinese battery EVs are priced in general around 80-100% higher in Europe than in their domestic market, creating room for price adjustments, said Jefferies analysts led by Johnson Wan. There could be very limited benefit for major European players, as the high-volume EV segment would remain intensely competitive with subdued margins, said Patrick Hummel, Head of European Autos Research at UBS.
Although Bernstein analysts expect the provisional tariffs to be a serious turn-off to smaller Chinese brands, prompting them to focus on other export markets, bigger Chinese players are likely to step up their localization efforts. Paul Gong, UBS’s head of China Autos Research, also wrote in a note to clients, “Localization of production may become an increasingly appealing option over longer run compared to direct shipping from China for exporters to take shelter from trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions.”
Below, we take a look at what the key Chinese players have been doing in Europe and their respective prospects in a continent home to some of the world’s most important automakers.
BYD
China’s top EV maker is widely considered the least affected by the newly announced tariffs, with the strength to still break even on an import model thanks to its significant cost advantage versus peers. BYD’s EVs would still be priced lower than the similar models launched by European rivals, even if the company raises prices by 17.4% to fully pass on the additional tariff to customers, although the measure could effectively prevent its dominance in destination markets.
The leading Chinese player would also have a 25% cost advantage over European counterparts even after localizing the production of its popular sedan in the region, according to UBS’s previous findings. Set to be the first major Chinese automaker with a production base in Europe, BYD expects its Hungary plant to begin operation before 2026, with an annual capacity of 150,000 units. Although exports to Europe only account for a single digit percentage of its total sales, it aims to “be in a leading position” in the regional market by 2030.
SAIC
China’s biggest car manufacturer got relatively unfavorable treatment, and analysts expect the measures will significantly curb its competitiveness in Europe. The European Commission will impose tariffs of nearly 50% on EVs from the Chinese state-owned automaker, along with those deemed to be the least compliant with the nine-month anti-subsidy investigation announced last September. The company, which owns the iconic MG brand of British origin, said earlier it had “fully cooperated” with the investigation and hinted that the EU regulators misused their investigative powers in order to view sensitive business information related to its supply chain.
SAIC responded on Thursday by saying, “As SAIC MG’s sales in Europe continue to grow, we are planning to introduce China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) technologies and green factories to the continent” (our translation). The firm also called for more cooperation between China and the EU. China’s top car exporter to Europe, with shipments of nearly 243,000 units to the region last year, revealed plans last July to build a manufacturing facility plant on the continent.
Geely, Chery, and Dongfeng
Volvo parent Geely was among the three Chinese companies selected for further scrutiny and saw a relatively moderate tariff increase of 20%, another individually calculated duty rate. The impact is likely to be very marginal to China’s third biggest car exporter, thanks to its ownership of Volvo and the currently limited scale of its own brands in the region. Geely’s EV brand Zeekr said on Tuesday it is looking to establish a presence in six to eight European countries by year-end.
Chery, as well as its state-controlled peers such as Dongfeng and Chang’an, faces an extra 21% charge in a category for those cooperating with the probe but not sampled. Jaguar Land Rover’s Chinese manufacturing partner in April reached a joint venture deal with Spain’s EV Motors to produce cars at a former Nissan plant in Barcelona later this year, Reuters reported previously. Meanwhile, Dongfeng’s Voyah brand, previously planning to enter Germany, France, and Italy, has for now been selling EVs mainly in Nordic countries.
NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Leapmotor
Like their bigger peers, Chinese EV makers NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Leapmotor are also set for extra charges of 21%. NIO, which currently sells four models from more than €60,000 ($64,361) in Europe, higher than most domestic competitors, said on Wednesday its commitment to the regional market remains unwavering and it will continue to explore new opportunities within the EU despite protectionism.
The company is still looking to introduce its lower-priced vehicles, including an upcoming third brand codenamed Firefly, in Europe, but the plan is now being adjusted based on the current situation. Delivery of the first model, a well-designed boutique car, will begin in the first half of 2025 in China at a price cheaper than the BMW Mini, CEO William Li recently told investors during an earnings call.
Zhejiang-based Leapmotor, which has Stellantis as its largest shareholder, is also making pivots. Chief executive Carlos Tavares said on Thursday the European auto giant will shift the output of some Leapmotor products to Europe due to the tariff hikes, having reportedly explored the potential of building EVs jointly in Italy. A similar scenario could unfold for Xpeng Motors and its European ally Volkswagen. President Brian Gu last September revealed plans to enter Germany, Britain, and France, with Italy also being included earlier this year.