2009 is gonna be fizzling for most. Maybe even Chinese SNS.
I doubt that Alexa’s figure is the best judgement of Kaixin001 (chart below), but having said that, the real figure might not be so far off. As we can see, the daily page view of KaiXin001 exceeds those of Xiaonei. Unbelievable.
Why is it so? Two points. KaiXin001 is just seven-month old. Xiaonei is supposedly at it’s prime.
So how did KaiXin001 succeed? They have grabbed a market segment that Xiaonei neglected, or rather least strong at. While many university students are big fans of Xiaonei, KaiXin001 seems to have won the hearts of white-collar workers.
Also, the games of KaiXin001 is apparently more attractive than Xiaonei’s. This is a serious blow to Xiaonei’s pride, whereby Xiaonei actually launched a developer platform.
With the doom and gloom of 2009, will any big company take the plunge to buy KaiXin001? If no suitors come by, then KaiXin001 will have to find a revenue stream to sustain itself. We still don’t see any concrete revenue stream for SNSes. And if we already see one SNS toppling another at such pace, will any big firms be dumb enough to spend billion-dollar to buy a SNS portal?
The probability of KaiXin kicking Xiaonei’s arse is slim and probably won’t happen. For one, I like Xiaonei’s developer platform and I give them credit for the first to copy facebook (yes). So, the best case scenario for Xiaonei is to wipe KaiXin out. Second, both will coexist and serve different market. The very likely of the three is for KaiXin to continue its pace to eventually beat Xiaonei.
Whatever the outcome, Chinese SNS will come to a reality check in 2009.